A few numbers as tourney time approaches
February 7, 2012 on 5:08 pm | In analysis | 2 CommentsWith the state tournament cutoff date approaching on Monday, everybody’s trying to figure out what the tournament fields will look like. It’s surprisingly clear-cut at the moment, with my projections finding 78 teams likely to qualify (21 private, 28 Public A, 29 Public B). There could be some surprises, and there could be some at-large bids, but let’s take a look at some numbers about the projected qualifiers.
Public A – top 5 overall win %
| Randolph | .850 (15-1-4) |
| Morristown | .842 (16-3) |
| South Brunswick | .833 (12-2-1) |
| Newton-Len. Val. | .816 (15-3-1) |
| Morris Knolls | .775 (14-3-3) |
Public A – top 5 win % vs. projected qualifiers, all groups
| Randolph | .813 (11-1-4) |
| Morris Knolls | .719 (10-3-3) |
| Morristown | .700 (7-3) |
| Montgomery | .667 (10-5) |
| Ridge | .643 (9-5) |
Public A – top 5 win % vs. all Public A tms
| Roxbury | 1.000 (5-0) |
| Ridgewood | .950 (9-0-1) |
| Randolph | .900 (4-0-1) |
| South Brunswick | .850 (8-1-1) |
| Pascack Valey | .833 (10-2) |
Public B – top 5 overall win %
| Tenafly | .875 (17-2-1) |
| Rumson-Fair Haven | .867 (13-2) |
| Point Pleasant Boro | .853 (14-2-1) |
| Summit | .778 (13-3-2) |
| Paramus | .750 (13-4-1) |
Public B – top 5 win % vs. projected qualifiers, all groups
| Point Pleasant Boro | .833 (5-1) |
| Tenafly | .818 (9-2) |
| Kinnelon | .688 (11-5) |
| Summit | .667 (7-3-2) |
| Wall | .615 (7-4-2) |
Public B – top 10 win % vs. all Public B tms
| Kinnelon | 1.000 (7-0) |
| Hopewell Valley | 1.000 (4-0) |
| Tenafly | 1.000 (2-0) |
| Brick Township | 1.000 (1-0) |
| Chatham | .889 (8-1) |
| Point Pleasant Boro | .857 (6-1) |
| Summit | .818 (9-2) |
| Verona | .786 (5-1-1) |
| Nutley | .778 (7-2) |
| Ramapo | .769 (9-2-2) |
Private – top 5 win % vs. NJ teams
| Delbarton | 1.000 (14-0) |
| Don Bosco Prep | .941 (16-1) |
| Montclair Kimberley | .875 (14-2) |
| Notre Dame | .850 (16-2-2) |
| St. Joseph Metuchen | .844 (13-2-1) |
Private – top 10 win % vs. all NJ privates
| Delbarton | 1.000 (14-0) |
| Don Bosco Prep | .923 (12-1) |
| St. Joseph Mont. | .875 (3-0-1) |
| Montclair-Kimberley | .800 (4-1) |
| St. Joseph Met. | .700 (3-1-1) |
| St. Rose | .667 (2-1) |
| CBA | .654 (6-2-5) |
| Notre Dame | .625 (4-2-2) |
| Red Bank Catholic | .500 (2-2-2) |
| Morristown-Beard | .500 (2-2) |
| Paramus Catholic | .500 (1-1-1) |
| St. Joseph Hamm. | .500 (0-0-3) |
2 Comments
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Appreciate the records but where’s the state cup brackets? Hope all is well and keep muddling through on the HNIB stuff. Tony
Comment by Tony — 9 February 2012 #
Thanks for the brackets. Love to have your take on at-large bids – particularly two schools, Brick Memorial and Montville.
I can’t see Parsippany or Paul VI getting in if they don’t win today.
And wouldn’t think Monroe gets one either.
Any others you think I might be missing?
Comment by Tony — 13 February 2012 #