Beyond the Scoresheet

Suggested seedings, 2012

You all know I love trying to figure out how teams should be seeded in the NJSIAA state tournaments. It’s a virtually impossible task (and a thankless one for those who actually have to do it) that lends itself to much debate, especially with the regionalized schedules of recent years.

I haven’t seen a lot of games or teams this year, but I’ve tried to stay on top of the goings-on, so here’s my attempt at seedings. A reminder: These are how I think the teams should be seeded, not how I think they will actually be placed. I am not including potential at-large teams. These took a while and got really complicated in the middle of the public brackets because of the lack of inter-regional play. When possible, I tried to avoid likely intra-league matchups, but it has to happen occasionally.

Post comments and suggestions below, and please use logic based in results or standings if you want to sway my opinion!

* somebody did sway my opinion, providing some additional information about the Cranford-Wall game, which was used to rank different regions. Feel free to write in with your thoughts below.

PRIVATE
1. Delbarton (22-1) – An easy one. Unbeaten against N.J. teams since the 2010 Gordon Cup
2. Don Bosco Prep (21-2-1) – Another easy one, despite late-season slip-up against CBA
3. CBA (15-3-5) – Thought long and hard, but they just seem more dangerous than anybody else after rebounding from a rough January
4. Morristown-Beard (13-5-4) – Almost ranked them No. 3, but CBA’s February win over DBP tipped the tables
5. St. Augustine Prep (6-8-4) – Picking the mid-Gordon teams over the top non-Gordons was a tough call. Hermits’ loss to PDS came early in season, and it makes for better matchups
6. Gloucester Catholic (6-10-1) – Playing best hockey now but lost season series to St. Augustine
7. Montclair Kimberley (17-4) – Beat Pin, BE, SHP handily, lost to MB handily
8. Pingry (14-10) – Best win was against PDS, benefitted from Mtgry wins over SJMet, RBC
9. Notre Dame (20-2-2) – Lost to PDS but beat SJMet, SHP, PJ head-to-head
10. St. Joseph Metuchen (17-3-1) – Losses to ND, Mtgry, PDS; beat Rwood, SJV, PJ, StR
11. St. Joseph Montvale (16-4-2) – Lost to Rwood, 1-0-1 vs. PC
12. Paramus Catholic (18-3-3) – 0-1-1 vs. SJMont, beat MsgrF-NY
13. Red Bank Catholic (9-9-6) – Inconsistent but lost to Rid, PDS, Mtgry, PJ; tied MsgrF-NY
14. St. Peter’s Prep (6-14-2) – Lost to Lville, RBC in only games vs. NJ non-Gordon teams
15. St. Rose (17-4-2) – Lost to SJMet and three Shore C/D tms but wins vs. SJV and SHP
16. Seton Hall Prep (7-15-2) – Lost to StR, finished 3rd in National Div., beat BC head-to-head
17. Bergen Catholic (6-10) – 1-1 vs. BE/PJ but had (early) wins over SA, GC, SPP
18. Bishop Eustace (5-14-2) – Split with PJ but beat SHP, SPP
19. Pope John (7-14-2) – Beat SJV and RBC but went 0-1-1 vs. ND, struggled in Gordon
20. St. John Vianney (7-15-2) – Lost to SJMet, PJ, StR; best results came in Shore B
21. Paul VI (8-9-2) – Tied SJHam but stronger strength of schedule
22. St. Joseph Hammonton (7-4-6) – Got in via weak schedule

PUBLIC A
1. Randolph (17-1-4) – An easy choice as Mennen Division champions with non-league win over Rid
2. Morris Knolls (15-4-3) – Finished second in Mennen, beat Mtgry, Rmpo, Ten, GR
3. Morristown (18-3) – Went 3-2 vs. Mennen Div., beat Rid, Hboro
4. Ridge (15-6-2) – Went 7-0-1 down stretch in Skyland, beat MidS, RBC
5. Middletown South (15-5-2) – Best public-private result with win vs. CBA but inconsistent in losing to Rid, How, SJV
6. Montgomery (19-5) – Went 2-1 vs. Rid, 1-1 vs. BR, beat SB, Mboro, SJMet, RBC, lost to MK
7. Bridgewater-Raritan (17-5-1) – Beat West, Mnroe, OB but went just 4-3 down stretch
8. Hillsborough (11-10-2) – Good wins over BR, Cha make up for tie with OB (which lost to SJMet 0-9), but it was close
9. Ridgewood (17-5-2) – Limited good wins; lost 7-5 to SJMet
10. Westfield (11-9-3) – Beat Rbville, tied Rwood
11. Robbinsville (14-7-3) – lost to West but beat How 4-3
12. Howell (11-10-3) – lost to Rbville but beat GR, split with MidS, tied Para
13. Pascack Valley (13-7-1) – Fell behind How due to tie w. GR; beat Liv
14. South Brunswick (14-3-1) – Best of the rest despite losses to Mtgry, HV
15. Roxbury (14-7-4) – Good in Bridgewater tournament, including win vs. Hboro, but 2-3-1 record down stretch hurt chances
16. Old Bridge (13-4-5) – Finished behind SB, but tied Hboro, dropping below Rox
17. Wayne Valley (11-8-4) – Beat Rmpo for best win, tied NH; lost to Kin 1-3
18. Marlboro (13-8) – With lack of common opponents, loss to Kin 1-6 proves decisive
19. Manasquan (11-10) – Technically, playoff loss to Marlboro shouldn’t factor in, but knowing that it happened, I just couldn’t rank them in a different order
20. Livingston (12-9-2) – Beat Spa but lost to MtO
21. Montclair (10-9-3) – tied NLV head-to-head and played decent schedule but struggled in weak division
22. West Orange (14-8-2) – Head-to-head win over NLV ranked its entire division higher
23. Newton-Lenape Valley (17-4-1) – loss to WO erased wins over Lak, MtO and tie w. Mclr
24. Bernards (13-9-1) – lost to Vero, Mad but stays ahead of FL by virtue of wins over WayH, WM
25. Mount Olive (12-11-1) – beat Liv but tied Spa and lost to Ber, NLV head-to-head
26. Fair Lawn (10-12-1) – losses to Mclr, WayH, WM
27. WWPN (10-9-1) – lost to MtO, best win MidN
28. Woodbridge (10-9-1) – lost to SPF, Dem, Bay

PUBLIC B

1. Kinnelon (16-6) – The only team to beat Public A top seed Ran also split with Public A No. 2 MK and beat Rmsy, Spa, and several respectable private schools
2. Chatham (14-9-1) – Split with Kin, lost to MK twice by one goal, beat Sum, Spa, Pin, Rbville
3. Summit (17-4-2) – Beat Rid, Mah 9-1, tied BR, MidS
4. Tenafly (19-2-1) – Lost to MK 5-1, no wins outside of Big North
5. Paramus (15-5-2) – Big North Silver reg. season champion stays high despite non-league losses to Mah, Rox and tie w. How
6. Ramapo (11-3-2) – Its 4-0 win over BM and OT loss to MK helped entire region rise in seeding
7. Northern Highlands (14-6-3) – Beat Rmsy, 1-2 vs. Rmpo, and had two close losses vs. Ten
8. Ramsey (14-6-1) – Beat BM in OT, respectable in close losses to Kin (3-4) and Ran (0-3)
9. Brick Township (11-5-4) – Now you see why we highlighted others’ wins over BM; Bri 1-0-1 (1-0-2 after deadline) vs. BM with win by one goal; only significant wins were 3-1 record vs. Shore B. Went 0-1-1 vs. MidS, tied RBC.
10. Mendham (12-10-1) – Lost just 1-0 to Sum, beat John twice
11. Indian Hills (13-7-3) – Beat NLV, Ber but lost to Vero; bailed out by solid record of division teams
12. Lakeland (16-7-1) – Went 2-0 (3-0 after deadline) vs. GR to get higher seed but lost to NLV
13. Glen Rock (12-9-2) – Beat Vero, Pri; tied Ran, PkV and lost to MK only 2-1
14. Mahwah (11-8-3) – Beat Para, Reg, but lost to Sum 9-1, hurting other division teams based on comparative score vs. Men
15. Rumson-Fair Haven (15-2) – Did not play outside the Shore but went 1-1 vs. Wall, Point Pleasant
16. Wall (16-5-3) – One of top teams in tight Shore B race; loss to Cra an outlier that came without five starters
17. Nutley (13-9) – Beat John, Reg, ML and gets edge over Verona based on winning most recent head-to-head game
18. Verona (14-7-3) – Loss to GR, lack of other big results trumps win over IH
19. Point Pleasant Borough (16-3-2) – Went 1-1 against RFH, Wall, but remaining schedule was weak
20. Princeton (14-5-2) – Lost to GR, HV but beat Cra and split with Rbville
21. Hopewell Valley (11-8) – Beat SB, Pri but struggled otherwise
22. Johnson (12-8-2) – Did well enough to finish third in Union Cty but lost to Nut, Men, MidN
23. Cranford (11-8-2) – Wins over Wall, OB crucial in seeding process; lost to Pri
24. Park Regional (12-8-1) – Won Haas Division but lost to Nut, Mah
25. Wayne Hills (10-12-1) – Split with SJMont but had few other good wins; lost to Ber
26. Pequannock (13-6-4) – Lost to FrT and tied Vero but beat Spa
27. Madison (10-11) – Beat Ber, Spa but lost to John
28. Sparta (13-9-1) – Best win vs. WE; lost to Kin, Cha, Mad, Peq

State tournament qualifiers

I hope to update the main part of the site when I get access to an appropriate computer some time this week, but for now here are the qualifying teams for the state tournament.

Before I present the lists, a few notes:

1. There are very few deserving at-large teams this year. I love the at-large rule but believe it should be used for teams punished by their strength of schedule, which makes Brick  Memorial and maybe WWPS the only viable candidates in my opinion. Even those are a bit shaky.

2. Toms River North is not included due to exceeding the state limit on player disqualifications.

3. Morris County missed out on a huge chance to get two extra teams in the tournament by scheduling Parsippany (likely loss) to play Monday in the Haas Cup and Montville (likely win) to play Tuesday. Had those games been switched, both teams would have qualified; as it stands, neither will. I’m a fan of scheduling playoff games in advance, but this is one where a little switch would have made a huge difference. I’m also surprised Montville played its non-league game against Mendham on Saturday; a simple postponement also would have gotten the Mustangs into the tournament.

Private (22 tms)
Delbarton 19-1
Don Bosco Prep 20-2-1
Notre Dame 18-2-2
St. Joseph Metuchen 16-3-1
Montclair Kimberley 16-4
Paramus Catholic 16-3-3
St. Rose 17-4-2
CBA 15-3-5
St. Joseph Montvale 14-4-2
Morristown-Beard 12-5-4
St. John Vianney 12-6-3
St. Joseph Hammonton 7-4-6
Pingry 13-10
Red Bank Catholic 9-7-6
Paul VI 8-8-2
St. Augustine Prep 5-8-4 (automatic)
Gloucester Catholic 6-9-1 (automatic)
Bergen Catholic 5-10 (automatic)
Pope John 6-13-2 (automatic)
St. Peter’s Prep 6-13-2 (automatic)
Seton Hall Prep 6-14-2 (automatic)
Bishop Eustace 5-13-2 (automatic)

Public A (28 tms)
Randolph 16-1-4
Morristown 17-3
South Brunswick 13-3-1
Newton-Lenape Valley 16-4-1
Morris Knolls 15-3-3
Montgomery 17-5
Bridgewater-Raritan 15-5-1
Ridge 15-5-2
Ridgewood 15-5-2
Middletown South 14-5-2
Old Bridge 13-4-5
West Orange 14-6-2
Robbinsville 13-6-3
Roxbury 14-7-3
Pascack Valley 13-7-1
Marlboro 11-7
Wayne Valley 11-7-4
Bernards 13-9
Manasquan 11-8
Montclair 10-7-3
Westfield 10-8-3
Hillsborough 11-9-2
Livingston 11-9-2
WWPN 9-8-1
Woodbridge 10-9-1
Howell 10-9-3
Mount Olive 12-11-1
Fair Lawn 10-10-1

Public B (28 tms)
Rumson-Fair Haven 15-2
Tenafly 18-2-1
Point Pleasant Borough 15-2-2
Summit 16-3-2
Paramus 15-4-2
Wall 15-5-3
Lakeland 15-6-1
Kinnelon 14-6
Princeton 12-5-2
Ramsey 13-6-1
Northern Highlands 13-6-2
Brick Township 11-5-3
Ramapo 12-6-3
Verona 13-7-3
Chatham 14-8-1
Pequannock 11-6-4
Indian Hills 12-7-3
Hopewell Valley 11-7
Park Regional 12-8
Johnson 11-7-2
Mendham 12-8-1
Glen Rock 12-8-2
Cranford 11-8-2
Sparta 12-9-1
Nutley 11-9
Mahwah 10-8-3
Wayne Hills 10-10-1
Madison 10-10

A few numbers as tourney time approaches

With the state tournament cutoff date approaching on Monday, everybody’s trying to figure out what the tournament fields will look like. It’s surprisingly clear-cut at the moment, with my projections finding 78 teams likely to qualify (21 private, 28 Public A, 29 Public B). There could be some surprises, and there could be some at-large bids, but let’s take a look at some numbers about the projected qualifiers.

Public A – top 5 overall win %

Public A – top 5 win % vs. projected qualifiers, all groups

Public A – top 5 win % vs. all Public A tms

Public B – top 5 overall win %

Public B – top 5 win % vs. projected qualifiers, all groups

Public B – top 10 win % vs. all Public B tms

Private – top 5 win % vs. NJ teams

Private – top 10 win % vs. all NJ privates