Projected seeds, 2009

February 21, 2009 on 2:17 am | In analysis | 2 Comments

OK, it’s time for my annual thoughts on state tournament seeding. I haven’t looked at anyone else’s rankings (as you may have noticed, I haven’t had much time to devote to the site in the last two weeks), but I have consulted with a number of coaches from around the state.

The general consensus is that the public brackets are pretty cluttered – there are a lot more conflicting head-to-head results than in some years, which favors people who can see the games in person and know the stories behind them, which I obviously cannot do. I’d say 3-15 Public A and 3-10 Public B were the toughest portions to rank. But here are my picks:

 

Private

1. Delbarton – Gordon regular season winner, beat BE and CBA down the stretch.

2. Bishop Eustace – Gordon regular season co-champ

3. CBA – Could have gotten No. 2 but for recent loss to BC

4. Bergen Catholic – Win over CBA helped them earn home ice for a possible quarterfinal

5. Gloucester Catholic – Despite unbeaten record, schedule not strong enough to pass BC

6. Don Bosco Prep – Finished ahead of SHP on wins and head-to-head goal differential

7. Seton Hall Prep – Easy choice.

8. St. Peter’s Prep – Here’s where it gets tough. Unbeaten non-league record helps.

9. Morristown-Beard – Beat SA, narrowly lost to SPP, 1-1 vs. Pin (won 2/16 game)

10. Pingry – Finished behind MB after splitting season series

11. Red Bank Catholic – Beat PJ, ND; tied DBP; lost to MK, SPP, Ran down the stretch, thus locking them behind MB/Pin

12. Notre Dame – Beat SJV, PJ; tied DBP; lost 5-0 to RBC

13. Pope John – Beat SJV, SJMont; lost to RBC, ND

14. St. John Vianney – Lost to ND, Ran, PJ; split with RBC; beat MD

15. Monsignor Donovan – Lost to RBC, SJV, GC

16. St. Augustine Prep – 2-0 vs. SPP offset by 0-1-1 vs. PJ, loss to MB

17. DePaul Catholic – 2nd Northern White; beat PcV twice by combined 22-3; beat Cli

18. St. Joseph Montvale – 2nd Northern Red; 1-0-1 vs. Cli; beat PcV 5-0; lost to PJ, DBP (11-1)

19. Paramus Catholic – 0-1-1 vs. SJMont; needed OT to beat IH

 

Public A

1. Ridge – Top public all year long; 1-0-1 vs. Mtgry; tied MK

2. Montgomery – 10-1-2 vs. publics; tied Rid, Kin

3. Randolph – It gets tough here. 1-0-1 vs. Kin, MK; beat SJV, RBC, Jef; lost to BM, Rmpo; 5-1-1 record vs. MK, BM, SJV, RBC, Jef, Cha (common opps.)

4. Morris Knolls – Wins over Bri, RBC, Jef; tie vs. Ran, Rid; 4-1-2 record vs. Ran, Bri, RBC, Jef, Cha, Rid (common opps.)

5. Brick Memorial – Beat SJV, Ran; lost to RBC, Jef, Rid; tied Cha; 3-3-2 record vs. Ran, Bri, SJV, RBC, Jef, Cha, Rid (common opps.)

6. Brick Township – lost to MK, RBC, SJV; only quality win vs. MidN; 0-4-1 record vs. MK, BM, SJV, RBC (common opps.)

7. Montclair – Could be higher. 15-game unbeaten streak. No marquee wins or ties in weak Northern Red.

8. Clifton – Weak division, no marquee wins, but 12-2-3 and 7-0 down the stretch

9. West Milford – Lost to Lak; Split with Hksck, Nut but won division; key win over ML to place ahead of Halvorsen

10. Morristown – Lost last 5 gms.; wins vs. Cha, Jef; tie vs. MK; no losses to bad teams

11. Howell – Beat TRN, Wall; no losses to bad teams; weak schedule

12. Fair Lawn – Tough call. Tied Rox and lost to Cha, thus below Mor; also lost to Mah; beat RBC; tied TRN

13. Toms River North – Beat SJV; tied FL; lost to How; inconsistent throughout

14. Jackson Memorial – 16-game unbeaten streak and win vs. WWPN. Weak schedule dropped them.

15. WWPN – Tough call here. Beat BM in December but lost to JkMem, HV, Pri since.

16. Wayne Valley – 5th Northern White; 2-0 vs. Ber; Lost to WM; tied Cli

17. Hunterdon Central – Dominated bad division; beat Ber 1-0; beat WWPS 2-1

18. WWPS – Beat BR, Wall, Ten but lost to HntC, Rbville

19. Hackensack – 3rd in Northern Blue; no good non-league wins; lost to Rbville

20. Marlboro – Beat Wall, Liv; 2nd to How in Shore C; lost 8-2 to MidN

21. Toms River South – Split with JkMem, Wall; 3rd in Shore B; lost to TRN

22. Old Bridge – Lost to RBR in only non-league test; lost 4-1 to HntC

23. Park Regional – Beat West, Ten; tied Nut, GL; lost to IH, Mtville (7-1)

24. Westfield – Lost to ML, Reg, HV, Men; 1 win vs. non-Union team

25. Livingston – 3rd Central Blue; lost to Ham

26. South Brunswick – 4th Central Blue; no non-league games

27. Manalapan – Los t to Sum, TRN, MidS; best win vs. Bay

 

Public B

1. Kinnelon – 2nd Mennen; split series vs. MB, MK; tied Mtgry

2. Ramsey – Big win vs. DBP but strength of schedule hurts

3. West Essex – I’m told No. 3 is too high, but 2-0 vs. GR is big; tied Nut; lost to Cha

4. Glen Rock – beat John, NH; OT loss to Rmsy; 0-2 vs. WE

5. Northern Highlands – 2nd NBIAL; 2-0 vs. Rmpo; tied Rmsy, John; lost to GR, Ran

6. Ramapo – 3rd NBIAL; beat Ran; tied Rmsy; 0-2 vs. NH

7. Verona – 1st Northern White; Beat Mclr, Men, Nut; split with Lak; lost to Para

8. Johnson – Beat MK, Hboro, Mtville; tied NH; only loss to GR but weak schedule

9. Lakeland – Split vs. Vero; 0-2 vs. Spa; beat WM

10. Mendham – lead Halvorsen; beat Pin, Ran, MK; 1-0-1 vs. ML; lost to Vero, Rbville

11. Mountain Lakes – Beat MK, GL; 0-1-1 vs. Men

12. Jefferson – Beat BM, GL, Pin, Men, Cha (2x); sub-.500 in lg. play

13. Wall – 1st Shore B; 1-1 vs. TRS; lost to BM, WWPS, How, Mboro

14. Chatham (*at-large recommendation*) – Too good not to let in; beat WE, Sum; lost to Halvorsen

15. Sparta – 4th Northern White; 2-0 vs. Lak; tied Sum

16. Hopewell Valley – Beat Cra, WWPN, Rbville, West; lost to Rox

17. Governor Livingston – 2nd UCIHL; 0-4 vs. MCSSIHL A/B

18. Summit – 4th UCIHL; beat MidS; tied Spa, Cli; lost to Cha

19. Rumson-Fair Haven – 4th Shore B; 1-4 non-league; lost to MidS

20. Nutley – 2nd Northern Blue; beat BR; tied WE; 1-1 vs. WM, HPt; lost to Vero, Rox

21. Madison – lead Haas; 1-0-1 vs. Mtville; lost to GL, Vero

22. Montville – 2nd Haas; beat Rbville; 0-1-1 vs. Mtville; lost to Sum, John, GL, ML

23. Robbinsville – Beat Men, Hksck; lost to Mtville, Pri, Ham

24. Dumont – Beat Hksck; 1-0-1 vs. HPt; 0-1-1, close vs. Ten

25. Old Tappan – Best wins vs. PkV, IH; lost 7-0 to Ten (though I’m hearing their actual record may be sub-.500)

26. High Point – 0-1-1 vs. Dmnt; lost to Spa

 

2 Comments »

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  1. Jon,

    I think you based too much (at least in Private) on head to head and not entire body of work or how teams are playing as year winds down.

    SPP beat MB by 1 but MB has been more consistent throughout and looks better when considering common opponents.
    SJV vs MD – SJV won on scoreboard but were thoroughly outplayed and SJV is reeling right now.
    RBC also falling off as season winds down – beat ND awhile back but wouldn’t right now.
    And PJ – if win vs SJV puts them above SJV and therefore above about 3 teams they don’t belong above, why doesn’t SA wins against SPP do a lot more for them?

    Comment by Dan — 24 February 2009 #

  2. Well – my apologies to you Jon – Looks like the seeding commitee did the same and based a whole lot more on head-to-head than in the past.

    Best of luck to all teams.

    Comment by Dan — 25 February 2009 #

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