Beyond the Scoresheet

Projected seeds, 2009

February 21, 2009 on 2:17 am | In analysis | 2 Comments

OK, it’s time for my annual thoughts on state tournament seeding. I haven’t looked at anyone else’s rankings (as you may have noticed, I haven’t had much time to devote to the site in the last two weeks), but I have consulted with a number of coaches from around the state.

The general consensus is that the public brackets are pretty cluttered – there are a lot more conflicting head-to-head results than in some years, which favors people who can see the games in person and know the stories behind them, which I obviously cannot do. I’d say 3-15 Public A and 3-10 Public B were the toughest portions to rank. But here are my picks:

 

Private

1. Delbarton – Gordon regular season winner, beat BE and CBA down the stretch.

2. Bishop Eustace – Gordon regular season co-champ

3. CBA – Could have gotten No. 2 but for recent loss to BC

4. Bergen Catholic – Win over CBA helped them earn home ice for a possible quarterfinal

5. Gloucester Catholic – Despite unbeaten record, schedule not strong enough to pass BC

6. Don Bosco Prep – Finished ahead of SHP on wins and head-to-head goal differential

7. Seton Hall Prep – Easy choice.

8. St. Peter’s Prep – Here’s where it gets tough. Unbeaten non-league record helps.

9. Morristown-Beard – Beat SA, narrowly lost to SPP, 1-1 vs. Pin (won 2/16 game)

10. Pingry – Finished behind MB after splitting season series

11. Red Bank Catholic – Beat PJ, ND; tied DBP; lost to MK, SPP, Ran down the stretch, thus locking them behind MB/Pin

12. Notre Dame – Beat SJV, PJ; tied DBP; lost 5-0 to RBC

13. Pope John – Beat SJV, SJMont; lost to RBC, ND

14. St. John Vianney – Lost to ND, Ran, PJ; split with RBC; beat MD

15. Monsignor Donovan – Lost to RBC, SJV, GC

16. St. Augustine Prep – 2-0 vs. SPP offset by 0-1-1 vs. PJ, loss to MB

17. DePaul Catholic – 2nd Northern White; beat PcV twice by combined 22-3; beat Cli

18. St. Joseph Montvale – 2nd Northern Red; 1-0-1 vs. Cli; beat PcV 5-0; lost to PJ, DBP (11-1)

19. Paramus Catholic – 0-1-1 vs. SJMont; needed OT to beat IH

 

Public A

1. Ridge – Top public all year long; 1-0-1 vs. Mtgry; tied MK

2. Montgomery – 10-1-2 vs. publics; tied Rid, Kin

3. Randolph – It gets tough here. 1-0-1 vs. Kin, MK; beat SJV, RBC, Jef; lost to BM, Rmpo; 5-1-1 record vs. MK, BM, SJV, RBC, Jef, Cha (common opps.)

4. Morris Knolls – Wins over Bri, RBC, Jef; tie vs. Ran, Rid; 4-1-2 record vs. Ran, Bri, RBC, Jef, Cha, Rid (common opps.)

5. Brick Memorial – Beat SJV, Ran; lost to RBC, Jef, Rid; tied Cha; 3-3-2 record vs. Ran, Bri, SJV, RBC, Jef, Cha, Rid (common opps.)

6. Brick Township – lost to MK, RBC, SJV; only quality win vs. MidN; 0-4-1 record vs. MK, BM, SJV, RBC (common opps.)

7. Montclair – Could be higher. 15-game unbeaten streak. No marquee wins or ties in weak Northern Red.

8. Clifton – Weak division, no marquee wins, but 12-2-3 and 7-0 down the stretch

9. West Milford – Lost to Lak; Split with Hksck, Nut but won division; key win over ML to place ahead of Halvorsen

10. Morristown – Lost last 5 gms.; wins vs. Cha, Jef; tie vs. MK; no losses to bad teams

11. Howell – Beat TRN, Wall; no losses to bad teams; weak schedule

12. Fair Lawn – Tough call. Tied Rox and lost to Cha, thus below Mor; also lost to Mah; beat RBC; tied TRN

13. Toms River North – Beat SJV; tied FL; lost to How; inconsistent throughout

14. Jackson Memorial – 16-game unbeaten streak and win vs. WWPN. Weak schedule dropped them.

15. WWPN – Tough call here. Beat BM in December but lost to JkMem, HV, Pri since.

16. Wayne Valley – 5th Northern White; 2-0 vs. Ber; Lost to WM; tied Cli

17. Hunterdon Central – Dominated bad division; beat Ber 1-0; beat WWPS 2-1

18. WWPS – Beat BR, Wall, Ten but lost to HntC, Rbville

19. Hackensack – 3rd in Northern Blue; no good non-league wins; lost to Rbville

20. Marlboro – Beat Wall, Liv; 2nd to How in Shore C; lost 8-2 to MidN

21. Toms River South – Split with JkMem, Wall; 3rd in Shore B; lost to TRN

22. Old Bridge – Lost to RBR in only non-league test; lost 4-1 to HntC

23. Park Regional – Beat West, Ten; tied Nut, GL; lost to IH, Mtville (7-1)

24. Westfield – Lost to ML, Reg, HV, Men; 1 win vs. non-Union team

25. Livingston – 3rd Central Blue; lost to Ham

26. South Brunswick – 4th Central Blue; no non-league games

27. Manalapan – Los t to Sum, TRN, MidS; best win vs. Bay

 

Public B

1. Kinnelon – 2nd Mennen; split series vs. MB, MK; tied Mtgry

2. Ramsey – Big win vs. DBP but strength of schedule hurts

3. West Essex – I’m told No. 3 is too high, but 2-0 vs. GR is big; tied Nut; lost to Cha

4. Glen Rock – beat John, NH; OT loss to Rmsy; 0-2 vs. WE

5. Northern Highlands – 2nd NBIAL; 2-0 vs. Rmpo; tied Rmsy, John; lost to GR, Ran

6. Ramapo – 3rd NBIAL; beat Ran; tied Rmsy; 0-2 vs. NH

7. Verona – 1st Northern White; Beat Mclr, Men, Nut; split with Lak; lost to Para

8. Johnson – Beat MK, Hboro, Mtville; tied NH; only loss to GR but weak schedule

9. Lakeland – Split vs. Vero; 0-2 vs. Spa; beat WM

10. Mendham – lead Halvorsen; beat Pin, Ran, MK; 1-0-1 vs. ML; lost to Vero, Rbville

11. Mountain Lakes – Beat MK, GL; 0-1-1 vs. Men

12. Jefferson – Beat BM, GL, Pin, Men, Cha (2x); sub-.500 in lg. play

13. Wall – 1st Shore B; 1-1 vs. TRS; lost to BM, WWPS, How, Mboro

14. Chatham (*at-large recommendation*) – Too good not to let in; beat WE, Sum; lost to Halvorsen

15. Sparta – 4th Northern White; 2-0 vs. Lak; tied Sum

16. Hopewell Valley – Beat Cra, WWPN, Rbville, West; lost to Rox

17. Governor Livingston – 2nd UCIHL; 0-4 vs. MCSSIHL A/B

18. Summit – 4th UCIHL; beat MidS; tied Spa, Cli; lost to Cha

19. Rumson-Fair Haven – 4th Shore B; 1-4 non-league; lost to MidS

20. Nutley – 2nd Northern Blue; beat BR; tied WE; 1-1 vs. WM, HPt; lost to Vero, Rox

21. Madison – lead Haas; 1-0-1 vs. Mtville; lost to GL, Vero

22. Montville – 2nd Haas; beat Rbville; 0-1-1 vs. Mtville; lost to Sum, John, GL, ML

23. Robbinsville – Beat Men, Hksck; lost to Mtville, Pri, Ham

24. Dumont – Beat Hksck; 1-0-1 vs. HPt; 0-1-1, close vs. Ten

25. Old Tappan – Best wins vs. PkV, IH; lost 7-0 to Ten (though I’m hearing their actual record may be sub-.500)

26. High Point – 0-1-1 vs. Dmnt; lost to Spa