Projecting seeds, Part II

February 13, 2008 on 1:13 am | In analysis | 6 Comments

Public A has some question marks while we wait for at-large teams to be selected and announced. So we’ll adjust as necessary, but for now, here’s how it lines up:

1. Fair Lawn – I actually had these the other way around at one point. But Fair Lawn was more consistent and had a split vs. Northern Highlands.
2. Randolph – The defending public champ only lost once to a public all year, against Northern Highlands.
3. Watchung Hills – Every team I considered at this level had some weak spots. Yes, Watchung Hills lost games in the Central White, but when you put the Warriors next to Ridge, they have the edge with a 1-0-1 mark.
4. Ridge – These guys have fallen off a bit but still won the very competitive Central Red.
5. Hillsborough* – I’m assuming they get an at-large bid. Finished three points behind Montgomery but won season series.
6. Montgomery – I went back and forth here, since the Cougars actually have 0 big wins against public schools. But they swept MKA, which is ranked ahead of Pingry, which beat …
7. Morris Knolls – Up and down year but wins over Cranford, Chatham, Morristown-Beard, St. Peter’s Prep.
8. Brick Memorial – Only loss to a public school is Wall, and they beat Brick and Middletown North.
9. Middletown North – I hate this 8/9 matchup, but I had to do it. Lions beat TRE head-to-head.
10. Brick Township – Went 0-1-1 against Memorial, split with Middletown North and, crucially, TRE.
11. Montclair – Northern White champs lost to Middletown North but beat Jefferson.
12. Hunterdon Central* – These round of 16 Central Conference matchups are almost unavoidable. These guys had better get an at-large bid.
13. Westfield – Solid showing in deep Central White.
14. Tenafly – Their best wins are over St. Joe Montvale, River Dell and Regional; they get the edge over Paramus, with whom they split, based on playing in a higher division.
15. Paramus – Split with Tenafly and finished second in Northern White.
16. Wayne Valley – Best win over Indian Hills and a split with Paramus.
17. Roxbury – Beat TRE (thanks, TRE, for playing a diverse schedule) and Pequannock but tied Morristown. I don’t care that they’re undefeated.
18. Vernon – Split with Tenafly, beat Wall, but lost to Montville, which drops them below Roxbury.
19. Steinert
– Not a lot of results against Public A teams to go on, but they lost to Wall, which puts them below Vernon.
20. Toms River South – Best wins are Monroe, TRE and Red Bank Regional.
21. South Brunswick – Near the top of the Central Blue, but what does that really mean?
22. Livingston – Lost twice to South Brunswick but beat Park Regional.
23. Park Regional – Lost to Livingston, Westfield, Tenafly and Nutley.
24. River Dell – Lost to Wayne Valley, Tenafly and Nutley; beat Parsippany Hills.
25. Monroe – Beat Dumont, which finished ahead of …
26. Hackensack – Finished behind River Dell in Northern Blue.

* my projections for at-large bids. I’ll adjust if I hear otherwise.

I think this bracket’s pretty solid. The quarterfinal matchups are tough and match more local teams than I’d like, but I just couldn’t put Knolls ahead of Montgomery due to Knolls’ losses to Pingry. Post here if you disagree with something.

6 Comments »

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  1. why is hackensack ahead of dumont if dumont has a better record and plays harder teams it makes no sense

    JY: Dumont is in Public B.

    Comment by cody sansone — 13 February 2008 #

  2. Roxbury placement is interesting…only 3 seeds lower than Regional but they beat them twice…behind TRS even though they also beat TRE, Pequannock, and Montville twice…Tenafly’s big win is against Regional??? I know undefeated in HAAS doesn’t mean much…but it’s still undefeated with a semi-competetive nonconference schedule.

    JY: The Montville point is interesting; that should push Roxbury ahead of Vernon. I can’t push them ahead of Wayne Valley, however, because Wayne Valley is ahead of Bayonne, which tied Morristown, which tied Roxbury.

    Comment by jon — 13 February 2008 #

  3. I agree with the Roxbury thing I’m glad someone finally realizes that just because theyre undefeated doesnt mean theyre a top ten team.

    Comment by PS — 13 February 2008 #

  4. WHEN IS PUBLIC B COMMING?

    Comment by PETER — 13 February 2008 #

  5. Wayne Valley Beat Morristown 2-1.. and they also beat Bayonne 2 times..

    Comment by HkyFan — 13 February 2008 #

  6. Did Hunterdon Central apply for an at-large bid? And if so, what was the criteria for them being left out while Bayonne was in?

    JY: Bayonne’s was an automatic bid. Apparently a non-league game was not reported to njhockey.org, which caused my projections to be off. Hillsborough, Ramapo and West Essex were the at-large selections.

    Comment by Tony P — 1 March 2008 #

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