Beyond the Scoresheet

Projected seeds, 2010

February 15, 2010 on 7:24 pm | In analysis | 6 Comments

It’s the most important day of the New Jersey hockey season, and everybody is getting ready to start speculating about state tournament positioning. Thanks to a partial holiday today, I had some time to go over the list of qualifiers and draw up some seeding projections.

If you note a factual mistake (team qualified/not qualified or in the wrong public bracket), please post a comment or email me at jty [at] njhockey.org and let me know. If you disagree with the way I’ve ranked things, please post a comment and explain why. I need logic founded on results, but I will consider making a change if there’s a strong argument. Remember, only results through today’s 2/15 cutoff can be considered for seeding!

With all that in mind, here we go:

PRIVATE
As always, the private field was slightly easier to seed, but the split Gordon Conference really threw a few wrenches into the process. I don’t know if RBC and MonDon deserve at-large bids, but I’ll put them in anyway.

1. Delbarton – This was an easy one.
2. Gloucester Catholic – Lost to DBP and tied SA, but their head-to-head win over CBA was key
3. CBA – Just missed out on No. 2
4. Morristown-Beard – Head-to-head win over SHP keeps them here despite loss to Chatham
5. Seton Hall Prep – No surprising wins, and they pay for their surprising loss to MB
6. Pingry – 0-1-1 vs. MB dropped them this far; close games with MB gave them edge over DBP
7. St. Augustine Prep – Could certainly have been higher and played well down the stretch; tie vs. Paul VI hurt
8. Don Bosco Prep – Two one-goal losses to SA in December; losses to MB, PJ, BC hurt
9. Paul VI – Wasn’t sure what to do with these guys; they tied SA in their only non-league game
10. Pope John – Finish ahead of SPP in Gordon; beat SJMet, RBC; lost to Ran, MK, SJV
11. St. Peter’s Prep – Also improved down stretch, beating MD and RBC and tying DBP, but still finished behind PJ
12. Red Bank Catholic (at-large) – Lost one-goal games to PJ, SPP; fourth among non-CBA teams in Shore A
13. Montclair Kimberley – Beat DPC, tied SJMet, recent loss to Livingston makes them a question mark
14. Monsignor Donovan (at-large) – If I let RBC in, I have to let MonDon in. They might both miss out.
15. St. Joseph Metuchen – Likely to finish just behind Paul VI; split with MonDon, loss to Ridge hurt
16. Bergen Catholic – Showed potential in wins vs. DBP, SPP
17. DePaul Catholic – Lost 3-2 to MKA in rare non-league test
18. Bishop Eustace – Difficult schedule but 2-18-1 doesn’t deserve a home game

PUBLIC A
This was a really difficult one. I felt solid about the top and bottom, but the middle stretch from 7-26 or so was very hard. It was tough to separate teams from the same conference in many cases, and I tried to avoid setting up games between regular season division rivals. I’ve included my picks for at-large bids (Ridge, Wayne Valley, Clifton)

1. Morris Knolls – They did tie Jef, Kin, and Ran but are unbeaten vs. publics and finished tied for first in state’s toughest division
2. Montgomery – No losses in Public A, two ties vs. Hboro, second in very competitive Skyland
3. Hillsborough – Lost to Rid down stretch but finished third in Skyland
4. Randolph – Came on down the stretch; only bad loss was to Peq in December; beat SJV 3-0
5. Brick Memorial – Slightly crowded here. BM won Shore A and went 1-0-1 vs. Bri; tied SJV; lost to How, Mtgry, Jef, RBC
6. Middletown South – Third in overall Public A and just beat Brick; went 2-1 vs. top Shore C teams; only game vs. north was 3-2 win vs. Sum; crushed SJV twice
7. Brick Township – Losses 6-1 to BM and 4-2 to MidS; also slipped up in tie vs. TRN; beat SJV 2-1
8. Morristown – Split w. Jef; beat PC (6-1), Spa, Rwood; only bad loss to Peq in early December
9. Freehold Township – Beat Ste, Kin to open year, then won Shore C despite 0-1-1 vs. How; tied SJV, Mah; lost to Sthrn, Ocn
10. Howell – Only losses to Mlpn, Bri, MidS; 1-0-1 vs. FrT but 2nd place; beat BM, SJV (4-1), TRS, Wall, PC (9-4)
11. Manalapan – 1 loss since mid-December, went 1-0-1 vs. How, beat MidS on Saturday; beat WWPS twice, tied Lak and lost to Rbville early; tied Wall; crushed Sthrn
12. Roxbury – losses to Mad, Hboro, Bri, Peq on Saturday; beat Para; tied Vero
13. Westfield – Beat Vero, Rid, HV in non-league; lost to Mad; tied BR
14. Ridge (at-large) – Strong second half, finished 4th in Skyland; beat WE, John, GL; tied MK; lost to West, BM (twice)
15. Bridgewater-Raritan – Only bad loss to WatH in December; 5th in Skyland; tied West; won Mclr tourney
16. Montclair – Beat Rmpo, no bad losses, 2nd in Mclr tourney
17. Fair Lawn – Lost to Mclr in tourney; hot second half (8 unbeaten); lost to Hksck, Rwood, Cli all in December; beat Rwood, tied Hksck in 2010
18. Tenafly – Only non-league loss to BR; fifth in Mclr tourney
19. Middletown North – Won series vs. rival MidS but inconsistent and lost to Spa, Cra; wins vs. OB, Ste, WWPS, Pri
20. Clifton (at-large) – If only to increase tournament scoring average; beat Sum in only non-lg. and finished just ahead of WayV (split head-to-head) in division
21. Wayne Valley (at-large) – Props for playing in Tri-County’s more competitive division; beat Nut, IH in non-lg.
22. Ridgewood – Likely to win division; split with Hksck, FL; very inconsistent; lost to BM, Mor, WE at Jef tourney; tied WM, DPC
23. Hackensack – Likely to finish 2nd behind Rwood; split with Rwood, 1-0-1 vs. FL, 1-0-1 vs. Bay; lost to Kin, Nut non-league
24. Bayonne – Inconsistent – tied Passaic leader PcV and last place WayH; best win was Cli in Dec; worst loss SJMont (0-1-1)
25. Toms River South – Struggled against good teams in losses to TRN, How; 1-0-1 vs. Wall earns respect via Wall’s results (beat HV, tied BM)
26. West Windsor-Plainsboro North – Best wins vs. Ste (2-0); 0-2 vs. HV; terrible non-conference schedule
27. Steinert – Got in on last day and likely to finish fourth in Colonial; no strong wins
28. South Brunswick – Losses to Paul, SJMet in lg. play, FrT; beat JPS twice
29. Old Bridge – Fourth in NJIHL South, tied Liv; lost to BR, MidN
30. Livingston – Beat MKA for only good win; tied OB
31. WWPS – 0-6 non-lg.; lost to Mlpn twice, BR
32. Jackson Memorial – 3rd in combined Shore B (split w. Sthrn); lost to WWPN, JPS
33. Southern Regional – 4th in combined Shore B; beat FrT but lost to TRN, Mlpn (8-1)
34. Newton-Lenape Valley – Split with Ber, 2-1 vs. Vern

PUBLIC B
Also a tough one choosing between all the very good Morris County and NBIAL A teams, then trying to mix in the many mid-level squads from Passaic and Union Counties and on down the state.

1. Ramsey – 1st in most competitive Pub B division; beat Kin, Rid, SPP; lost to Ran, DBP
2. Kinnelon – Strong second half; lost to Rmsy, Rmpo, FrT; 1-0-1 vs. Ran, beat Cha, Jef; tied MK
3. Jefferson – Beat GR, WM, Hboro, BM; split with Cha, Mor
4. Chatham – Hurt by late ties with Sum, Spa; big wins over MB, Jef, WE, Cra
5. Glen Rock – Hurt by losses to Jef, Rwood; 11-2-1 down stretch but lost to Mah
6. Northern Highlands – Likely to tie with Rmpo for 3rd (teams split); very impressive wins vs. Mtgry, RBC, plus head-to-head GD over Rmpo (9-5); lost to SPP
7. Ramapo – Beat Kin, Rid and tied SPP but hurt by non-lg. results (tied Nut, lost to Mclr)
8. West Essex – Tied Mtgry and won division but hurt by no big non-league wins and tie w. Mclr, losses to MKA, RBC, Rid, Cha
9. Passaic Valley – Best team in Passaic County but played 0 games vs. non-league NJ opponents
10. Lakeland – Tied Mlpn in December, crushed Vern Sunday in only non-lg. results
11. West Milford – Lost to Kin (6-3) and Jef (2-1) in non-lg. results that earn some respect for all Passaic teams
12. Summit – Strong second half and favorite for UCIHL title but lost to Cli, Spa, MidS
13. Wall – Beat HV, Mboro; tied BM; lost to MidS, How; tied Mlpn
14. Hopewell Valley – Won Colonial but no good non-lg. wins; lost to Wall, West, Hboro
15. Mahwah – 2-3 vs. big NBIAL tms; tied FrT in only major non-lg. game; beat Reg (4-1); close to Ten (tied Pri, which is worse than HV)
16. Sparta – Best wins Sum, MidN; key losses Ten, Mor; tied Cha
17. Nutley – 6 ties make tough to judge; lost to GL, WayV; barely beat Dmnt
18. Verona – Tied Ten, Rox; lost to West; beat Cra, ML, Peq
19. Johnson – 1-1-1 split w. Sum but no good non-lg. wins – scheduled strong but lost to Hboro, MK, SPP, Rid
20. Governor Livingston – Beat Nut, Mad; tied Ber, WMC; lost to Mor, Rmpo, Rid
21. Cranford – Best win MidN; also beat Ber, Pri; lost to Vero, Cha, Hboro
22. Madison – Basically an honorary UCIHL member; lost to Spa, GL; beat West, NLV; tied Sum
23. Rumson-Fair Haven – Fifth in combined Shore B; beat Mboro; tied SJV; lost to RBC, MidS
24. West Morris – Beat Ber, Rbville; behind Rox in Haas; lost to Mor (5-4); 0-2 vs. Mad, tied GL
25. Freehold Boro – Finished behind Mboro; beat Ocn; 2-0 vs. Hight
26. Ocean Township – Beat FrT, WWPS; lost to FrB, Mboro
27. Robbinsville – Best win Mlpn; edged WWPS for Valley; split with Pri, Hight
28. Bernards – Lost to Cra, Peq, WMC; tied GL; 0 big non-lg. wins
29. Mount Olive – Bad losses to Pars, NLV; best win Vern
30. Old Tappan – *added after receiving additional results* PkV best win; none over a .500+ team
31. Hightstown – Best results win vs. Rbville, tie vs. Ste; 8 of 10 wins vs. Ewi (4), Law (2), Not (2)
32. East Side – I love these guys but this is unavoidable; 0 wins vs. winning teams

NOTE: The NJSIAA lists its Public A/Public B breakdowns in this document. However, the document omits two teams in Public A (Jackson Memorial, Monroe) and two in Public B (Jackson Liberty, Sparta). It also includes an extra team, Wallkill Valley (JV only), in Public B.