Beyond the Scoresheet

Preparing for the state cutoff

February 8, 2008 on 12:10 am | In analysis | Comments Off on Preparing for the state cutoff

As a reminder, all games played up to AND INCLUDING Monday, Feb. 11 count toward teams’ records for the state tournament. Apparently shootouts count as wins and losses for the purpose of the state tournament.

With that in mind, here’s a breakdown (which will be updated periodically) of which teams are already in and which teams are on the bubble. If you see a mistake, please send an e-mail to jty [at] njhockey.org.
Public A – IN (24)
Tenafly
Montclair
Wayne Valley
Hackensack
River Dell
Montgomery
Ridge
Watchung Hills
Westfield
Livingston
South Brunswick
Fair Lawn
Steinert
Morris Knolls
Randolph
Roxbury
Middletown North
Brick Township
Brick Memorial
Toms River South
Monroe
Park Regional
Vernon
Paramus
POSSIBLE AT LARGE (10)
Jackson Memorial 9-11-3
Hunterdon Central 8-9-3
Hillsborough 9-10-2
Clifton 9-12
WWPS 8-9-3
Bayonne 9-10
Scotch Plains-Fanwood 7-11-3
West Orange 10-12-2
Morristown 6-10-3
Toms River East 8-11-2
MY TAKE
Of the bubble teams, I only have confidence in WWPS (whoops), Park Regional and Monroe (almost whoops) to qualify on their own. I think Hillsborough will definitely get in as an at-large team, and I think Hunterdon Central also has a chance. The Northern Conference teams (Clifton, Vernon, Paramus), Jackson and Monroe will need to qualify automatically. Toms River East is the only other team with at-large hopes, but I think Hunterdon Central has played a better schedule. Expect Randolph, Fair Lawn and Ridge to be top seeds.

Public B-IN (24)
Glen Rock
Lakeland
Sparta
Dumont
Passaic Valley
Cranford
Johnson
Bernards
Governor Livingston
Indian Hills
Northern Highlands
Ramsey
Hopewell Valley
Lawrence
WWPN
Robbinsville
Chatham
Jefferson
Kinnelon
Montville
Wall
Red Bank Regional
Rumson-Fair Haven
Summit
POSSIBLE AT-LARGE (6)
Parsippany Hills 8-9-2
West Essex 10-12-2
Nutley 8-9-2
Ramapo 8-12-1
Hamilton 6-10-2 Law
Manasquan 7-11-2 StR, TRS
MY TAKE
I expect Nutley, Summit and Parsippany Hills to qualify on their own (and I was almost wrong on all three accounts). West Essex definitely deserves an at-large bid, in my opinion, due to its improved play recently. Ramapo is the only other team I think has a chance to get in as an at-large, and given that Ramapo beat West Essex, it’s a tough call. Kinnelon, Ramsey, and Northern Highlands will lead the field, which could easily be deeper than Public A.

PRIVATE-IN (21)
Bergen Catholic
Bishop Eustace
CBA
Delbarton
Don Bosco Prep
Pope John
St. Augustine Prep
St. Peter’s Prep
Seton Hall Prep
Paramus Catholic
DePaul Catholic
Gloucester Catholic
Montclair Kimberley
St. Joseph Metuchen
Paul VI
Notre Dame
Morristown-Beard
Pingry
Red Bank Catholic
St. John Vianney
Monsignor Donvan
POSSIBLE AT-LARGE (2)
St. Joseph Montvale 8-10-1
St. Joseph Hammonton 6-9-1 Mill?
MY TAKE
I think St. Joseph Montvale will not qualify automatically, and neither St. Joseph will get an at-large bid. There’s just no point on the parochial side, where whoever gets in will get dominated against any good team. Delbarton, CBA and St. Augustine Prep are the obvious choices to lead this field, which will be the largest in private history.